2020 General Election in Taiwan

The results of the Taiwan general elections had been eagerly awaited for a long time. Especially the results of the local elections in 2018 made these general elections more remarkable. In addition, the protests in Hong Kong increased the importance of the Taiwan general elections.

In this article, I will first describe my observations in general elections. Then I will briefly explain the results of Twitter analysis about Taiwan general election, which I analyzed with the text analysis method.

OBSERVATION

In the morning, I started following the general elections in Taiwan. At the same time, I also tried to feel the political atmosphere inside country. Because of that reason, I talked with some of my Taiwanese friends. Around 7 PM, the election results began to be announced. Around 7.30pm, I first went to the KMT's headquarter in Kaohsiung. However, the KMT headquarter was quite empty. The most important reason for this was that DPP was ahead by far, according to the first results. Another important reason was that pan-blue party sympathizers did not trust their candidates.

Around 8 pm, the results began to be clear and I decided to go to the DPP's rally. The rally area was quite crowded. It was as crowded as the KMT's rally, which won last year's local elections. The excitement and joy of people in the rally area was quite interesting.

As a result of the local elections in 2018, the Green Party(DPP) lost the local elections. As a result of the defeat, the DPP leader and Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-Wen resigned from party leadership. But Tsai Ing-Wen, who withdrew her resignation, won this year's general elections.

With the results, the KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu made his speech first. About an hour later, Tsai Ing wen, the winner of the election, made her speech. However, the first thing that caught my attention during this speech was that Tsai Ing Wen spoke quite calmly and seriously. Unlike Ing Wen, DPP sympathizers were extremely happy.

In her speech, Ing wen praised Taiwan's democracy and stated that relations with China will continue in the same way.

TWITTER ANALYSIS

2000 English tweets about Taiwanese general elections between the January 1st and January 20th were examined with R computer program. First, the most commonly used words were found in these 2000 tweets. The words Economy, Growth, Hong Kong Protests, independence and victory are the most used words in 2000 tweets.

Most of the tweets are positive about Ing-Wen and DPP's victory.

Words like freedom, peaceful, democracy, growth and hope are the most commonly used positive words. Words such as infrared, protest, fight and Xi Jinping are the most commonly used negative words. 

Secondly, sentiment analysis of these 2000 tweets was analyzed. The highest sentiment in these tweets is trust. Then comes anticipation and fear.

Words like president, democracy, freedom, integrity, alliance and brilliant are the words with the highest trust sentiment. Words like young, vote, result and prevention are the words with the highest sense of anticipation. Words like Fight, Interfere, and Xi Jinping are the words with the highest sense of fear.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, DPP sympathizers were very happy and hopeful at the DPP rally. Twitter analysis results gave similar results.

However, despite all this happiness and anticipation, it is a matter of curiosity how China-Taiwan relations and Ing-Wen's attitude towards China will change and shape.

Protests in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is definitely different from other Chinese cities. Hong Kong was a British colony for more than 150 years - part of it, Hong Kong island, was ceded to the UK after a war in 1842. 

The territory was also popular with migrants and dissidents fleeing instability, poverty or persecution in mainland China.

Then, in the early 1980s, as the deadline for the 99-year-lease approached, Britain and China began talks on the future of Hong Kong - with the communist government in China arguing that all of Hong Kong should be returned to Chinese rule.

The two sides reached a deal in 1984 that would see Hong Kong return to China in 1997, under the principle of "one country, two systems".

As a result, Hong Kong has its own legal system and borders, and rights including freedom of assembly and free speech are protected.

However, the country is currently on the agenda with great uprisings. Protests have continued in Hong Kong since April. The reason for these protests is the act adopted by the Hong Kong parliament. This act would have allowed extradition from Hong Kong to mainland China. 

The adoption of this law attracted the reaction of many people, especially young people. This reaction quickly turned into protests.

Western media soon began to follow the protests closely. Almost every day, many biased news about protests are shared. For this reason, CNN's news from May to August was examined.

First, the most used words were examined. The results of this research are as follows;

 [1] "after"          "also"           "and"            "are"            "arrested"       "been"           "bill"           "but"            "china"          "city"           "demonstrations"
[12] "extradition"    "for"            "from"           "had"            "has"            "have"           "hong"           "including"      "kong"           "last"           "long"       
[23] "monday"         "more"           "night"          "not"            "one"            "party"          "people"         "police"         "political"      "protest"        "protesters" 
[34] "protests"       "said"           "since"          "sunday"         "than"           "that"           "the"            "their"          "they"           "two"            "was"         
[45] "were"           "which"          "will"           "with"           "yuen"

Then, correlation analysis of some of the most commonly used words was examined. The first of the examined words is the China. The correlation analysis of the "China" word is as follows;

   mainland         mob         unlawful       station     between 
           0.98        0.98               0.98             0.97        0.96             
         movement      unrest                    accusations
               0.80        0.79                           0.76
   

As can be seen, one of the words with the highest correlation with China is unlawful. Then the correlation analysis of the word "police" was examined. The correlation analysis of the "police" word is as follows;

consecutive       march         weeks        people     kok          mong       
1.00                    1.00          1.00          0.96          0.92          0.92                 
demonstrators   extradition       support
          0.79          0.79                  0.79
       island         
         0.78       
As it is seen, the words that have the highest correlation with the word police are people, mong kok (one of the areas where protests continue) and arrest. Finally, the most commonly used words are shown in a graph.